BREAKDOWN OF THE TOP NCAAF CONFERENCES

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Updated: August 29, 2014
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August is flying by. College Football has started. Time for a little CFB breakdown and we start in the ACC, home of the defending Champions, the Florida State Seminoles.
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ATLANTIC DIVISION
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FLORIDA STATE - Let's be honest. I can go on and on here. But the simple fact of the matter is that FSU is loaded on both sides of the ball. I can't find a game that would be considered a 'look ahead' where they can get picked off. Virginia (for homecoming) between road games at Louisville and Miami? Not likely. Seminoles will be double digit faves in every game and have a chance to be the first team to repeat since Nebraska. QB Jameis Winston will look to repeat his Heisman campaign and another undefeated season. HC Jimbo Fisher has the talent to make history here.
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CLEMSON - I really like this defense. It is the strength of the unit. HC Dabo Sweeney has some work to do on offense replacing their QB, a 1000 yard rusher and their top 2 WRs. If the rest of the division wasn't so weak, I would probably have them lower regardless of how good the defense will be.
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LOUISVILLE - HC Bobby Petrino is back for another round replacing Texas-bound Charlie Strong. He will have a new QB in sophomore Will Garner, but the youngster has some upperclassmen to help him out. A good RB tandem, plus a solid group of WRs will help out Garner. For me though, leaving the AAC and coming to the ACC will be the biggest hurdle. Petrino brought in Todd Grantham from Georgia to run the defense. If he can help build a SEC type defense, then the offense will be just fine. That being said, there is no shot at a repeat at a 12-1 season.
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SYRACUSE - I like this bunch. They won their bowl game last year, and their offense is building some confidence behind Terrel Hunt. I am putting it down right now in mid-August. I am betting the Cuse over ND when they face each otherSeptember 27th. I think these guys should be 4-0 heading into conference play. And I won't be shocked if they knock of Louisville at home after beating ND!
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NC STATE - Wolfpack went 0-8 LY in ACC play. That alone has me thinking they double that win total. They do have 14 starters back, 7 on each side of the ball. Their new QB in Florida transfer Jacoby Brissett. NCST needs the defense to improve and for their new QB to get real comfortable with his WRs for these guys to think about a bowl.
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BOSTON COLLEGE - 2nd year HC Steve Addazio had a nice first year going 7-6. But reality will smack him right in the face here. He loses the nation's top rusher, the school's all-time leading receiver and a 4 year starter at QB. Big shoes to fill. He did grab Florida transfer Tyler Murphy who he recruited. But I think they are too many questions on the offensive side of the ball as they have just 3 starters back. Rebuilding in Chestnut Hill for 2014.
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WAKE FOREST - Wake went 4-8 LY, and bring in a new HC, Dave Clawson who was the man at Bowling Green. I normally think first year HC's have problems. In this case, coming from a mid-major and taking over a struggling ACC team, expectations can't be high. New schemes, coaches and turnover will lead to a long year for Wake.
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COASTAL DIVISION
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NORTH CAROLINA - I'm going Tarheels here to win the Coastal. They have 13 starters back, and HC Larry Fedora is entering that 3rd year where coaches should have their guys in place. This guy can coach. We know that from his time at Southern Miss. I like the dual threat ability of Marquise Williams. He looked good down the stretch LY.
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VIRGINIA TECH - I have to say this. I really like Frank Beamer. But truth be told, I think entering his 28th year, the game is passing him by. Football is all about airing it out now. I like defense and special teams. They do win games. But you can't win if you can't score. And I think with a new QB taking over, they will have some trouble scoring. Again. The defense will be a top unit. But I can see a yo-yo type QB situation which won't give either QB the reps they need to get better.
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MIAMI - I am a fan of The U. I can't lie. But this team just can't get over the hump. HC Al Golden starts his 4th year with a nice core of returning starters. This is Miami. They always have top blue-chip recruits on both sides of the ball. When will Golden get that talent to the top of the mountain. And by mountain, I think Canes fan will be happy with 10 win season!
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DUKE - I'm going Duke here. These guys won 10 games last year. Yes, their could be a hangover. But they do have 14 starters, 8 on offense including plenty of seniors at the key skill positions. HC David Cutcliffe has this team moving in the right direction. The Coastal is pretty balanced and when you aren't facing FSU, Clemson and Louisville out of the Atlantic, your chance at winning greatly increases.
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GEORGIA TECH - This is where this division gets tricky for me. I am putting the Yellow Jackets here. I am not expecting much. HC Paul Johnson will have his triple action in full gear with agile QB Justin Thomas under center. I know they lost their top 3 rushers, but in this system, it is just plug and go.
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PITTSBURGH - We have another HC entering his 3rd year. In Pitt's case, it is Paul Chryst. They guy took over a program that had 5 coaches in 15 games! So, the players are clearly happy with the continuity! The defense lost a beast in Aaron Donald. On offense, they have sophomores at QB, RB and WR who saw some PT last year. Not a rebuilding year, but expect some hiccups from the young offense while the offense looks for a leader.
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VIRGINIA - So another team that was win-less in ACC play LY. Cavs HC Mike London clearly on the hot seat (18-31). You aren't going to win many games when your QBs throw 9 TDs and 17 INTs. These guys are 2-15 last 17 in ACC play! I want to have faith in 17 returning starters. But if your starters aren't good, does it matter? Hopefully their QBs take a step forward with another under OC Steve Fairchild.
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We continue our breakdown of College Football and head to the heartland and the Big 10 Conference. Be sure to check back daily over the next week for more CFB Conference Previews.
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EAST DIVISION
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MICHIGAN STATE - This pick just got extremely easier with the news Braxton Miller is out for the year. Now, I did have MSU picked here last year over the Buckeyes and was going here again. With Miller out for OSU, there is no reason that the Spartans shouldn't be undefeated this season. Any National Championship hopes rest in Game 2 when they visit Oregon for the second game of the season. The defense will be good as they always are. I look for QB Connor Cook to take a big step with his offense.
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OHIO STATE - Buckeyes dealt a devastating blow as I was doing this report as their QB Braxton Miller was lost for the year. This team was going to be already working with a revamped OL, and will now put a youngster behind it. The defense will get them wins, but I can't see them beating the Spartans. It won't shock me if they get upended at home against Virginia Tech. HC Urban Meyer is a great coach so we can't totally discounted this team.
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MARYLAND - I think the Terps surprise some people this year. Believe it or not, I like Edsall as HC here. This is his 4th year and he is getting his system guys under him now. A couple years back here, he lost every QB on his roster. So he has had some bad injury luck. They have 8 starters back on offense and 9 on defense. I think that after the teams above him here, this conference is pretty wide open.
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PENN STATE - I will admit it. After the Sandusky thing and the sanctions, I really thought PSU was done. But they managed to go 10-6 in Big 10 play. I can't overlook that. Even with new HC James Franklin, this is a talented bunch. They have another great class of recruits coming in. Hackenberg had as good a freshman season at QB as you could have asked. I think they have more questions on defense than offense so that will keep them from making any big steps after going 7-5 last year.
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MICHIGAN - I remember the fan fare when Brady Hoke came to Ann Arbor. He went 11-2 in his first year, then 8-5 and 7-6 the last 2 years. I can't see them improving much here. Now they have a new OC who will try to get the OL in order and get QB Devin Gardner to have some steadier play. If they suffer through another poor year by Michigan standards, someone will be on the hot seat.
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INDIANA - Have to like the offense here. These guys put up 38ppg last year and return 8 starters to that unit. Problem is they return 9 starters to defense that allowed 38.8ppg. At least the games won't be boring!
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RUTGERS - Big step up in play for Rutgers. I'm from NJ so I am excited to see how Rutgers develops here. I would be shocked if they win more than 5 games. I just think they have taken a few steps back in recent years. They don't have the horses for this kind of football right now.
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WEST DIVISION 
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IOWA - Don't ask me why I like this team so much. They have burned me in the past when I have them at the top of their division. I like the offense a lot. They bring back plenty of experience. They avoid Ohio State and Michigan State and get Wiscy and Nebraska at home. The schedule is there to take advantage. Let's see if Kirk Ferentz can get these guys to the top.
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WISCONSIN - I can be honest here. If the Badgers get past LSU in their opener, that can propel an undefeated run here. I just think with 3 starters back on defense, they are going to have their hiccups.
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NORTHWESTERN - I think HC Pat Fitzgerald has a good squad this year. 17 starters back 9 offense, 8 defense. There is a lot of senior leadership. The schedule shapes up nicely as they miss Ohio State and Michigan State, plus get Wiscy and Nebraska at home. They go to Iowa off a bye week. The bottom half here is week so Northwestern should go bowling.
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NEBRASKA - I like Bo Pelini. But the guy just hasn't delivered in my eyes. Pencil these guys in with 4 losses because that is what has happened the last 6 years. I can't see them improving on 9 wins with tough road games at Michigan State, Wiscy and Iowa. With just 11 starters back and a young QB behind center, I think they are a middle of the road squad.
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ILLINOIS - Like I said above, this division basically falls off a cliff here. I have the Illini here simply because HC Tim Beckman went from 2 to 4 wins his first 2 years. I'll be honest, I don't know if he can duplicate 4 wins. They do have 14 starters back.
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MINNESOTA - These guys had a pair of 4 game win streaks on their way to a 8-5 season. Even with 15 starters back, I can't see them repeating that record.
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PURDUE - HC Darrell Hazell has nowhere to go but up after Purdue went 1-11 last year. They do have 15 starters back. But as I have said before. This team is rebuilding. You bring in a new coach and his scheme and coaches, there will be bumps in the road. I think they go win-less in conference play again. Hope they give this guy a few years to right the ship.
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We are heading the heart of college football. The big, bad SEC. The conference that had its BCS Championship streak snapped last year. Florida State may be #1 in the polls, but who would be shocked if 2 SEC teams are represented in the new playoff format.
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EAST DIVISION
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SOUTH CAROLINA - I think the Ole Ball Coach gets it done here. He does lose his QB and some defense, but still has 14 starters back off an 11-2 season. Speaking of 11-2, that is now 3 straight seasons posting that record. I could put Georgia here. I feel that these are the 2 top teams in the East. But I don't ever underestimate Steve Spurrier. Plenty of depth and balance on both sides of the ball. They also get Georgia at home. They don't do it flashy in Columbia, but the do get wins. I think they get to the SEC Title Game.
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GEORGIA - As I mentioned above, I think these guys are good. They have a beast RB in Todd Gurley. He will take some pressure off of new QB Hutson Mason, a senior replacing prolific passer Aaron Murray. Mark Richt has 8 starters back on defense, 14 total and should improve off an 8-5 season. The talent is there. It is always there. But unlike the coach above him, Richt hasn't had that signature win. It wouldn't shock me to see Georgia represent the East. We will find out early,September 13th, who is in the drivers seat.
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FLORIDA - Hot seat alert. I thought Will Muschamp would really have this team contending for titles. Granted, the injury bug riddled this group last year. These guys were 4-8 and lost to Georgia Southern. 14 starters are back to avenge some losses. They do have a tough schedule visiting Alabama and Florida State. If I am the coach, I think I need a bowl win to keep my job.
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TENNESSEE - Going with the Vols here. Butch Jones was 5-7 his first year, but does have 10 starters back. Still, the schedule looks pretty tough in my eyes. At Oklahoma, Georgia and South Carolina plus a home game vs Alabama. Anything more than 6 wins will be a successful season.
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MISSOURI -I can confidently say the Tigers won't win 12 games this year. I do like what I saw of QB Maty Mauk briefly last year. I  just think they lost too much from last years team. I can see these guys being 0-3 in their first 3 SEC games. The rest of the SEC schedule is a little soft.
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KENTUCKY- If this was CBB, well, we could just flip this upside down. The football team has a way too go to get to that level. Can't go anyplace but up after b2b 0-8 SEC seasons going 2-10 overall in both years. 2nd year HC Mark Stoops will need some time to get these guys bowling.
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VANDERBILT - New HC Derek Mason takes off a 9-4 with 10 starters back and I don't think they will be better than Kentucky. They have to replace their QB and basically their top WR. This is Vandy football. Not known for huge depth at the skill position. Then we have them bringing in new coordinators and new schemes. We know how this works. The new cooks need to find their ingredients.
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WEST DIVISION
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ALABAMA - Putting Nick Sabean and his troops at the top here. Come on. Do we really think Auburn can bottle the magic of last season. Iron Bowl in Tuscaloosa to see who is in the Championship mix.
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AUBURN - What an amazing first year for Gus Malzahn. I sure as heck didn't see that coming. Plenty of talent back and really no reason they can't dream of a title. But the sole reason they are behind 'Bama is because they will be on the road for this years season finale.
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OLE MISS REBELS - Yeah. I put LSU behind these guys. I like what Hugh Freeze has going on down in Oxford. 15 starters back, plenty of experience on that defense. Senior QB Bo Wallace could be the difference maker in an upset of the two teams above Mississippi. Schedule shapes up nicely as they miss the top dogs out of the East.
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LSU TIGERS - Les Miles just wins games. I can't lie. So that is why I have them here. Tough to say rebuilding and LSU football together, but that is how I see it. He has 12 starters back, but the offense looks to be a major hurdle. You lose your QB and top WRs, you are going to have problems. LSU is a perennial top recruiter, but I don't like the mix here.
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MISSISSIPPI STATE - Dan Mullen has 16 starters back from a 7-6 team. I like QB Dak Prescott. The problem is that he gets banged up. If he is healthy, so go the Bulldogs.
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TEXAS A&M - No Johnny Football for HC Kevin Sumlin, but he does have 9 starters back on defense. Problem is that unit finished last in total defense in the SEC. I think they improve there this year though. We will find out pretty early, like next Thursday how these guys are going to fare as they visit South Carolina.
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ARKANSAS - The rebuild is on for 2nd year man Bret Bielema. 0-8 in SEC play, 3-9 overall. Now they face probably the toughest schedule in the country. Yikes. Open at Auburn. Hopefully they have enough in the tank to beat Nichols State the  next week. They do have 14 returning starters. I won't be shocked when they have 3 wins again.
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We head to BIG 12 country. Let's get right to it!
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OKLAHOMA SOONERS - Look. I will be the first to tell you how many times I have been let down by this team and Coach Stoops. It is easy to put them here off of last year when they won at Kansas State, at #6 Oklahoma State then upended #3 Alabama in the Sugar Bowl. Make no mistake they have talent. Always do. I really feel their SOS will be the primary reason they win the Big 12. These guys are 57-4 last 10 years at home and that is where they get K-State, Baylor and Okie State this season. The defense brings back 9 starters and there are 5 more on offense. I rarely worry about Sooner offenses. ]
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BAYLOR BEARS - Not the most experienced bunch for Art Briles with just 10 returning starters, but they have the best QB in conference with senior Bryce Petty behind center. 32 TDs and just 3 picks last year. He has his top WR back and Shock Linwood should replace departed Lache Seastrunk in the backfield. My big fear is basically the lack of seniors on the roster. This is a young team. But they do have a Heisman hopeful at QB so you can't discount them out of any games.
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TEXAS LONGHORNS - Now normally, I would peg Texas for a step down after going 8-5 and losing a legend in their HC Mack Brown. But I like Charlie Strong. I know Texas has been down lately. But the Longhorns still get talent and we have seen what Strong can do with lesser players at UL. Maybe Brown just couldn't get through to the players anymore. 16 years is a long time and sometimes the game moves past you. A change of voice might get these guys to 10 wins. My sleeper pick for the Big 12.
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KANSAS STATE - Every single time I get down on Bill Snyder, the guy just kicks me in the stomach and takes my wallet. 20-7 last 27 in B12 play. This guy gets JUCOs and then proceeds to go and upset teams up and down his schedule. They only have 11 starters back. But when did that ever matter to Coach Snyder. They finished on a tidy 6-1 run capped with a bowl victory. Here is a guy who continually gets more from his players.
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OKLAHOMA STATE - I think we are looking at a rebuilding year in Stillwater. Just 8 starters back, 4 on each side of the ball. I will have a real better grasp at just how deep the rebuilding is after their August 30th game against Florida State. I think they have way too many holes and a 10 win season is out of the question.
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TCU - Horner Frogs off a 4-8 season. They are 6-12 in the B12 the last 2 years. Obviously a slight rise in talent leaving the Mountain West. HC Gary Patterson does have 16 starters back and his defense could be the best in the Big 12. I do have reservations about the offense as they break in a new OC. I do see them topping last years win total.
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TEXAS TECH - HC Kliff Kingsbury will again have an explosive offense as 9 starters are back for a unit that put up nearly 36ppg. These guys should be bowling for sure. But the defense has just 4 starters back. We might see a few shoot-outs in Lubbock. They need to show me something against the upper echelon teams here before I move them up.
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WEST VIRGINIA - I really want to put these guys higher. I like HC Dana Holgorsen. I thought that being an OC at Oklahoma State, he would bring some B12 knowledge to both sides of the ball. Obviously, the Mountaineers are still trying to find some footing in the conference. They went 4-8 last year. They have 13 starters back and plenty of experience. But I can't discount the fact they have one of the toughest schedules in the country. These guys open with Alabama, get a breather vs Towson, then head to B10 country(?) to face Maryland before getting Oklahoma. Would I be shocked to see them at 1-3? Holgorsen needs to make a move soon or the heat will starting getting turned up.
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IOWA STATE - Only reason these guys aren't in the basement is because they have 10 starters back on offense. But if they aren't good does it even matter? 4 straight losing seasons for HC Paul Rhodes entering his 6th season. He does have 2 bowl losses on his resume here, but unless I see some drastic improvement, it will be tough to double last years win total.
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KANSAS JAYHAWKS - Hey. At least basketball is getting closer right? HC Charlie Weis is in year 3. I think we can see improvement over last years 3-9 record. If they catch Duke asleep, they could be 3-0 by the end of September. They have 17 starters back so they have some experience. These guys averaged 15ppg while giving up double (31.8). Obviously we need the defense to improve and the offense to put some points on the board for these guys to get out of the basement.
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