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  Avoid Early Season Losses with these tips
Posted by: TGeorge - 04-07-2016, 04:00 PM - Forum: MLB Betting - No Replies

Avoid Early Season Baseball Losses


By Tony George


Pardon me for using old sayings, but MLB is a marathon and not sprint.  Do not follow the brainless many who go nuts in April betting baseball games like it is mid season.  There are 160+ games to wager for each team which equates into numerous opportunities during the season which run through October in the postseason. Again, my old saying Less is More, comes to fruition in the early stages of the season.

Same faces, different places.  Numerous trades have occurred since the Royals won the World Series last year and numerous pitching staffs and bullpens as well as hitting rotations were built in free agency and the off season. Teams need to develop over the course of the first month or so, create an identity and gel together. This takes some time, even though spring training provided some semblance of cohesion, the regular season and playing on a big stage with games that really count is a different animal.  Spring training stats are not the holy grail, and solely relying on them to open the season is dangerous. 

I personally do not put out any client plays until late April, Early May, as I prefer to let teams gel and get some stats and trends to work off of.  Putting out selections despite studying and following spring training is risky at best in my personal opinion.  While other cappers have plays out daily early on, I simply prefer not to. 
 

Here are a 6 things I use early on to assure a bankroll is not destroyed in the first 6 weeks of MLB wagering


1.  Never lay more than -150.  Liners are based on early season speculation, nothing more and nothing less. I never lay more than -150 in any game ever, but use this rule especially early on the season.

2.  Starting Pitchers - Again what happened last year is no indication of results to count on this season.  Check your spring training stats on the starting rotation pitchers stats.  There are going to be some rough spots for superstar starters in the beginning stages of the season, expect it to happen, it always does.

3.  Look at Spring Season Slugging percentage and On Base Percentage for teams.  It seems this consistency holds fairly solid carrying over to the first month of the regular season.

4.  Look for reasons to take Underdogs.  Starting pitchers who fared well in spring training, backed by a decent bullpen.  I especially break down the home underdogs early on.  

5.  Stay away from Run lines with Favorites, especially heavy favorites on the road.  Again, Ace starters early on are not as dominant as they were last year early on, and you will see many times with a scenario like the Kershaw starting for the Dodgers playing a weak sister on the road laying -230 many times win 3-2.  

6.  I never wager more than 1 game a day in April if any.  DO NOT Spread it around all over the board betting 4 or 5 games, especially laying numbers.  This is recipe for disaster.


Tony will start putting out plays in late April.  Check out his action at www.tonygeorgesports.com.  Every card is GUARANTEED to turn a profit or the next card is FREE automatically.    

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  KENTUCKY DERBY UPSETS HERE
Posted by: LineBeaters - 04-03-2016, 09:23 PM - Forum: Betting the Ponies - No Replies

Kentucky Derby upsets

Japan’s UAE Derby winner Lani arrived at Churchill Downs at 2:55 p.m. ET on Sunday following a 5 ½-hour van ride from Chicago and was bedded down in Barn 17, which will be his home for the next five weeks as the 3-year-old prepares to compete in the $2 million Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (Grade I) on Saturday, May 7.

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  MEMBERS ACCESS FREE THIS MONTH
Posted by: LineBeaters - 04-03-2016, 09:20 PM - Forum: MLB Betting - No Replies

FREE MEMBER AREA ACCESS ALL WEEK LONG!

Go to LineBeaters.com and ask for a Week Pass

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  Sat. NCAA Tourney Winner
Posted by: TGeorge - 03-19-2016, 02:44 PM - Forum: FREE DAILY BEST BET - No Replies

PS - While written up yesterday - Did you see the other Mo Valley Team, who was a video Free Play of mine - Northern Iowa beat Texas?  Mo Valley teams are no joke.

TG

Courtesy of Tony George
 
Wichita St vs Miami    * 12:10 EST Tip Off 

WOW.  A Play in team now favored in Round 2 and a mid major to boot against a might ACC team.  How could this be possible.  Oddsmakers are GIVING you the side play in this game by making the Shockers a favorite.  They first destroyed Vandy and then dismantled Arizona in this tourney.  They lost on a buzzer beater to a good Northern Iowa team in their conference semi finals to get to “play-in” status.  This team is no joke, talented, and relentless on defense and are very well coached.

Last year Wichita was a public darling but this year the undefeated streak headed into the tourney is long forgotten, but ask yourself what wins games in March?  GOOD GUARD PLAY – and Wichita St has 2 veteran, experienced, talented and big shot making studs in Baker and VanVleet and they will dominate the backcourt play again against the Hurricanes.

Wichita allowed 55 ppg their last 5 games and rendered a good Zona team useless on offense. They shut down Vandy as well.  Defense and good guard play wins games in March, proven fact and with that in mind while Miami has a couple of decentr guards, and are battle tested in the ACC, I like the Shockers to advance to the Sweet 16 with vastly superior guard play, defensive hustle and good coaching.  Dare we say Wichita State is a Cinderella?

FREE PRO PICK ON Wichita State -2.5 

Tony George has a 2 Dime MONSTER Top Play on a Saturday Triple Header and is locked and loaded for profit this weekend.  INVEST – WIN – GET PAID .  Tony went 3-0-1 on Friday’s Action.  HUNTING for a 3-0 Day
 
http://www.tonygeorgesports.com

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  Tuesday NIT - Tony George
Posted by: TGeorge - 03-15-2016, 04:28 PM - Forum: FREE DAILY BEST BET - No Replies

TUESDAY NIT FREE PLAY
 
Courtesy of Tony George Sports
 
 
Alabama @ Creighton
 
 
The Blue Jays fared fairly well in the Big East in what was a down year, rebuilding somewhat for coach McDermott and the Creighton.  They lost 3 out of their last 5 (lost to a good Seton Hall team in the Big East tourney) and have their hands full tonight with a well-coached Alabama team with Avery Johnson as head coach.  This game is in Omaha and Creighton lost 5 games there this season.
 
Creighton will have the home court advantage here, but with the level of parity in college hoops this year, anytime you are laying more than 4 points to anyone you look for reasons for underdog covers.  Alabama owns wins over Texas AM, Notre Dame, and Wichita State this season.  Retin Obasohan for Bama scored 20 points or more 14 times this season and is the best player on this floor tonight.  I expect this to be a good game, 2 good head coaches in a chess match and this line is too high.  Both these teams lost in their conference tourneys to the eventual champions.  Bama’s offense struggled a bit down the stretch and their free throw percentage their last 5 games was deplorable, but they have the better defense and I expect them to keep this closer than the spread.
 
FREE Play on Alabama +7
 
 

Tony has an NIT – NCAA Tourney play in Game Double Header tonight after sweeping the championship weekend games.  Also check out his March Madness package – discounts and ranked #8 last season in March Madness and #1 the season before and went 62% YTD in CBB!  www.tonygeorgesports.com 

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  Friday Hoops Winner - Tony G
Posted by: TGeorge - 03-11-2016, 05:55 PM - Forum: FREE DAILY BEST BET - No Replies

Friday Free Play courtesy of Tony George
 
 
Over 151 Fresno State / Colorado State
 
Expect a shootout here boys.   Both these teams trending over big time and both these teams scored in excess of 80 points last night and Fresno scored 95 against a huge win over UNLV.  Both teams over the past 5 games have averaged over 81 ppg their last 5, not playing a ton of defense and they just played March 2 and scored 160 points.
 
 
FREE Play on the OVER 151
 
Afternoon Best bet up now – Plus a Flat Bet Triple Header tonight in CBB Tourney Action.  DIALED IN – LOCK AND LOAD with Tony today!   2-1 on Thursday and banked a 2 dimer on Washington.  

$200 March Madness package up now.  GUARANTEED   http://www.tonygeorgesports.com   61% ATS in CBB YTD documented  

2015 - Went 65% in March Madness ranked 8th

2014 - Went 72% in March Madness ranked #1

(Sports Watch)  

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  2* NBA Free Play for Tues 3/8
Posted by: Jacobson Sports - 03-08-2016, 03:08 AM - Forum: FREE DAILY BEST BET - No Replies

Atlanta Hawks vs Utah Jazz

We are going to look to the Atlanta Hawks to cover the number for us tonight. The Hawks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win plus 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The Jazz are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs the Eastern conference. Take the Hawks!

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  2* CBB FREE Play Mon 3/7 MAC TOURNEY
Posted by: Jacobson Sports - 03-06-2016, 10:39 PM - Forum: FREE DAILY BEST BET - No Replies

Miami Ohio vs Ball State

We are going to look to Miami Ohio to get us the cover in the first round of the MAC tourney. Miami Ohio is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall plus 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games against MAC teams. Ball State is a money burning 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games vs. teams with a losing straight up record. Take Miami Ohio!

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  Friday Big 12 Action
Posted by: TGeorge - 03-04-2016, 04:15 PM - Forum: FREE DAILY BEST BET - No Replies

Let’s cash out tonight and get paid Twice on Payday.  A rock solid ABSOLUTE BLOWOUT tonight with a weak line in small conference action, PLUS a Bonus Late Steamer in the MO VALLEY for 1.5 Units of wallet fattening profits to head into Saturday with.  Have NO Doubts.  INVEST – WIN – GET PAID – YOU DESERVE IT!

http://www.tonygeorgesports.com 




Texas  @ Okie State +4.5


Free Play courtesy of Tony George 



Well the whole world loves Texas.  It just isn't that easy!   This could be Travis Fords last game as head coach in Stillwater.  Of course Okie State has the Big 12 Tourney left but they have simply crapped the bed down the stretch here, and speaking of that, Texas off an absolute blowout loss to Kansas at home in embarrassing fashion after they pulled the upset of Oklahoma last Saturday as the Sooners had an epic meltdown.

All things considered this line impend at 2 and now is 4.5 and may climb higher.  I am fading the public and taking the home dog on senior night and look for OSU to put up the fight of their life here and cover the number in a tight one.  The Cowboys 2-8 SU their last 10 and they did lose to Texas in Austin by 5 back in January, but all that said, not going to side with 78% of the betting action and Texas here, going contrarian.  Texas just 1-7-1 ATS the last 9 meetings. 



Free Play on Oklahoma State 

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  Mo Valley Tourney Breakdown - Tony George
Posted by: TGeorge - 03-03-2016, 04:31 PM - Forum: FREE DAILY BEST BET - No Replies

ARCH MADNESS – Mo Valley Tourney Breakdown
 
 
Courtesy of Tony George
 
 
I have managed a 64% ATS win rate in my speciality conference this season, The Missouri Valley, down from almost 80% in the regular season last year that included a Undefeated Arch Madness Tourney record in 2015 (Tourney in St Louis).  Unlike many tourneys such as the Big 12 and ACC to name a couple of parity filled conferences where about 4 teams actually can win the conference tourney title, this tourney is Wichita States to lose.   Other than Wichita State, you have Illinois State, Evansville and Southern Illinois who could all make some noise, but again, the Shockers are the class of the conference this year bar none.
 
It has been hard to handicap many games this year, mainly because once you get past the Top 3 seeds in this tourney, it is anyone's guess who shows up and wins games and covers spreads because they all can be equally bad on any given night.  The two bottom feeders, Drake and Bradley are teams that get double digits almost every single game, and many times in excess of 15 points, and in March, no one wants to lay numbers like that, so the value there is gone going against weak sisters with any value in the numbers.
 
 
Here are the Seeds – Play Starts March 3rd
 
 
#1 Wichita State
 
#2 Evansville
 
#3 Illinois State
 
#4 Northern Iowa
 
#5 Southern Illinois
 
#6  Indiana State
 
#7 Missouri State
 
#8 Loyola
 
#9  Bradley
 
#10 Drake
 
Wichita State has a 1st round Bye as well as Evansville and play opens up Thursday Night March 3rd with Loyola taking on Bradley and Missouri State taking on Drake,  Both upper seeds should advance and take on the big boys on Friday, I do not see any upsets on opening night as Drake and Bradley simply are deplorable this season.   Southern Illinois and Northern Iowa play Friday at 2 PM EST in a battle of #4 and #5 seeds and this might in fact be the best game of the tourney, and the winner gets the task of taking on Wichita State, who no doubt will win their first round game against a low seeded team. 
 
Actually Northern Iowa may have a leg up in that game depending on the line, these 2 teams split both SU / ATS this season 1-1 each.  Southern Illinois lost 6 out of their last 10 games.  The Panthers, who are not as good as past years editions, are on a 9-1 run and off a season ending win at Evansville and look to be the DARK HORSE in this tourney and unfortunately are in the bracket before the finals with the Shockers.
 
 
Here is the First and Second Team All Conference Players
 
First Team

Ron Baker, Wichita State, Sr.
D.J. Balentine, Evansville, Sr.
Anthony Beane, Southern Illinois, Sr.
Egidijus Mockevicius, Evansville, Sr.
Fred VanVleet, Wichita State, Sr.

 
Second Team

DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell, Illinois State, Sr.
Devonte Brown, Indiana State, Sr.
Montel James, Loyola, Sr.
Brenton Scott, Indiana State, Sophomore
Wes Washpun, UNI, Sr.

 
 
INTERESTING STATS:
 
·         Bradly and Duke combined were 3-29 SU away from their home floor this year
·         The 2 best Road record teams are Wichita State (9-3) and Southern Illinois (9-4)
·         Best ATS Team:  Wichita State 18-10 ATS
·         Worst ATS Team:  Drake 9-18 ATS
·         Best OVER Team : Missouri State 19-10-1 ATS
·         Best Under Team:  Bradley 18-11 ATS
 
 
All in all this is one of those rare conference tourneys with a clear cut championship to be, that is Wichita State, bet we all know this is Madness season in College Hoops, but I just do not see Wichita State losing this Conference Tourney and not being able to advance to the Big Dance and March Madness come Sunday afternoon.
 
 
Check out Tony George for all your March Madness needs.  61% documented YTD in CBB.  Ranked 8th in 2015 and ranked 1st in 2014 in March Madness (sportswatch) by a respected monitors.  A hugely discounted March Madness Package is avalibale now and all plays on an indiviual basis are Guaranteed to profit or the next card is FREE.  www.tonygeorgesports.com
 

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