UFC Fight Night Plays

Updated: May 10, 2014

UFC Fight Night 40: Recommended Plays by Boldtiger
A big 13-fight card this Saturday on May 10, 2014 at U.S. Bank Arena in Cincinnati, Ohio. All the best fighters are under the UFC banner and they present the biggest selection of fights to wager on. After breaking down the entire card, I give you my thoughts and opinions on what options you have as you look to profit on this night of fights.

Current Lines
Erick Silva -235 vs Matt Brown +195
Lorenz Larkin -245 vs Costas Philippou +205
Erik Koch -380 vs Daron Cruickshank +315
Tim Means -265 vs Neil Magny +225
Soa Palelei -245 vs Ruan Potts +205
Louis Smolka -135 vs Chris Cariaso +115
Rafael Natal -145 vs Ed Herman +125
Kyoji Horiguchi -170 vs Darrell Montague +150
Yan Cabral -400 vs Zak Cummings +325
Eddie Wineland -470 vs Johnny Eduardo +375
Nik Lentz -365 vs Manvel Gamburyan +305
Justin Salas -265 vs Ben Wall +225
Albert Tumenov -210 vs Anthony Lapsley +175

As you can see, there are several large lines on the card which makes it difficult to make money but if you can step in and make a couple of strong plays you will have yourself a great night. Generally speaking, the favorites tend to do really well on these UFC events so keep that in mind when you look at who to play. I am always looking for "value" on a fighter hoping to risk less to win more but it's not that easy as many times the underdogs are "dead money". I really can't make a case for any of the underdogs on this card so possibly playing a couple of parlays could be the best way to go. Below are my best bets for the night and some recommended parlays to follow. My recommended plays for this event is a total risk of 15 units.

Best Bets
Erick Silva -235 risk 4.70 to win 2.0
This fight is pretty obvious to me, Silva is just way too fast for Brown. Silva gets some criticism because he's lost a couple fights but you have to look at the individual matchup. Silva looks amazing and unstoppable if he fights a guy who wants to stand and trade but in his 2 recent losses, grapplers have worn him down. Thankfully, Matt Brown only fights one way and thats to go for the KO. This is the perfect opponent for Silva. Now Brown is very good and comes in having won his last 6 fights. None of those guys would last long with Silva and he will be in trouble early. Silva will probably hurt Brown and finish him with a submission.

Justin Salas -265 risk 5.30 to win 2.0
Ben Wall has no finishing skills. After losing his first fight by KO, he's dropped down in weight hoping to increase his chances of staying in the UFC. Problem is Wall just isn't good enough and after this loss will be cut. Salas isn't a champion or anything but is clearly notches above Wall. Salas can move forward and do what he wants as his only challenge will be fending off futile takedown attempts from Wall.

Nik Lentz -365 and Eddie Wineland -470 risk 3 to win 1.60
Lentz is a big featherweight and very durable, he just has all the advantages except speed over Gamburyan. Wineland is a gatekeeper at Bantamweight and Eduardo still a notch below contender status.

Soa Palelei -245 and Tim Means -265 risk 2 to win 1.85
Palelei is a big rough heavyweight that can really hurt people. Potts hasn't seen very good competition and his UFC debut will be a rough one. Means is a bigger stronger version of Magny. Magny does move well so this could go to a decision but Means has only struggled with guys who take him down and Magny isn't doing any wrestling.

In addition to handicapping sports(football, basketball, baseball), I also run a FREE MMA picks contest. For more information on this week's special promotion, visit https://www.facebook.com/boldtigermma/posts/315657541918963

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